by Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University

The latest USDA-NASS Cattle on Feed report pegged the Feb. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.716 million head in feedlots with 1,000+ capacity, down 0.7% year over year. January marketings were 101.4% of one year ago, and placements were 101.7% of last year. The report was well-anticipated, with values close to prereport estimates.

The February report also contained a summary of 2024 feedlot production and the structure of the feedlot industry coming into 2025. The total U.S. feedlot inventory on Jan. 1, 2025, was 14.297 million head, including 2.474 million head in feedlots with capacity less than 1,000 head (see Table 1).

Since cattle inventories peaked in the mid-1970s, feedlot inventories have represented a growing percentage of cattle inventories (see Fig. 1). Feedlot inventories represented 16.5% of total cattle inventories on Jan. 1, 2025, down fractionally from the peak of 16.6% last year.

Table 1 shows the size distribution of feedlots and their contribution to total feedlot production. A total of 2,105 feedlots with capacity of 1,000+ head (included in monthly Cattle on Feed reports) accounted for 82.7% of the Jan. 1 feedlot inventory and 87.2% of total feedlot production in 2024.

A total of 24,000 feedlots with less than 1,000-head capacity accounted for 17.3% of feedlot inventory Jan. 1 and 12.8% of total feedlot marketings in 2024.

Feedlots with capacity greater than 50,000 head made up 3.8% of feedlots with greater than 1,000-head capacity, but they accounted for 34.8% of inventory and 35.1% marketings last year.

More than 50% of feedlot inventories Jan. 1 and annual marketings in 2024 were in feedlots with greater than 32,000 head of capacity, 6.9% of feedlots with 1,000+ head.

The estimated total feedlot capacity (1,000+ head) on Jan. 1, 2025, was 17.2 million head, up fractionally from the previous year. Total feedlot capacity has not changed significantly in recent years and has averaged 17.13 million head since 2011. Fig. 2 shows the Jan. 1 feedlot inventory as a percentage of feedlot capacity.

The cattle on feed percentage of feedlot capacity Jan. 1, 2025, was 68.7%, down from 69.8% in 2024 and from the recent peak of 70.4% in 2022. For the past 15 years, feedlot inventories have averaged 66.7% of the feedlot capacity (red dotted line). The percentage dropped significantly from 2014-2017 during herd expansion. Ever tighter feeder-cattle supplies and the prospect of heifer retention for herd rebuilding mean that the percentage is likely to decrease in the future.