by Will Secor, University of Georgia

Pasture and rangeland conditions in the United States remained close to year-ago levels as July came to a close. Approximately 30% of pasture and rangeland were in “poor” to “very poor” conditions. However, these conditions were not uniform across the United States.

Drought gripped the Southeast starting in June and continuing into July. More than 60% of the Southeast (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia) was experiencing drought, hurting pasture and rangeland conditions there. According to the USDA, in mid-July, about 30% of pasture in the Southeast (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia) was in “poor” or “very poor” condition.

Some drought conditions exist in other areas of the country, as well, including approximately half of Texas, 60% of Oklahoma, 70% of Tennessee, and greater than 90% of Wyoming and Montana. Approximately 25% of Oklahoma and Texas pasture and rangelands were in “poor” or “very poor” condition.

With improved forage availability and lower feed costs, the ability of producers to expand their herds profitably increases.

The Great Plains states are in better condition, with only around 20% of pasture and rangelands in the same condition.

These stable pasture and rangeland conditions year-over-year set the groundwork for a rebuild. With improved forage availability and lower feed costs, the ability of producers to expand their herd’s profitably increases. However, there are many factors that will play a key role in these rebuild decisions on an operation-by-operation basis, including expected future profitability, interest rates, land availability and other input cost changes.

Drought in certain areas and improved conditions in other areas create uncertainty to the feeder-cattle and calf price outlook for this fall. If drought incentivizes producers to bring more calves to market than normal, calf prices may see a more pronounced seasonal dip this fall in those areas, while remaining high compared to recent history. However, in areas with good conditions, calf supplies may remain tight this fall, pushing prices higher than expected.

Editor’s note: Will Secore is assistant professor and extension livestock economist for the Department of Agricultural & Applied Economics at the University of Georgia. The article was first published July 29 by the Livestock Marketing Information Center available at https://lmic.info.
Angus Beef Bulletin EXTRA, Vol. 16, No. 8-A.​