by Hannah Baker, University of Florida

I hope you had a very Merry Christmas and that your 2025 is off to a great start!

As we look back on 2024, there are many things to be thankful for and to reflect upon, with many more things to look forward to and plan for in 2025 concerning the cattle market. Tight supplies, record-level/breaking prices, carcass weights and culling rates were some of the main talking points for 2024 as we discussed historical trends along with current issues such as avian influenza H5N1, drought effects, high input costs, elections, and the most recent detection of New World screwworm temporarily halting imports of cattle from Mexico. It is safe to say 2024 was an eventful year for the cattle industry.

We will have a clearer picture of the state of the beef cattle industry when the January inventory report is released at the end of the month, but the 2024 calf crop is expected to have declined by at least 1% compared to the 2023 calf crop of 33.6 million head, and the overall beef cow herd is expected to be smaller. Prices for feeder cattle have already reached record levels due to tight supplies. With the anticipated confirmation that supplies will be even tighter going into 2025, along with no significant signs of heifer retention or rebuilding, it makes sense to be optimistic about the continuation of high prices in 2025 and possibly into 2026.

With the anticipated confirmation that supplies will be even tighter going into 2025, along with no significant signs of heifer retention or rebuilding, it makes sense to be optimistic about the continuation of high prices in 2025 and possibly into 2026.

Prices for 500- to 600-pound (lb.) steer calves in the Southern Plains ended the year at around $330 per hundredweight (cwt.), a 13% increase from 2023. Average annual prices for this same weight class in 2024 were roughly 18% higher than 2023. According to the data, annual average prices for fed cattle have also increased by about 6%.

While location affects prices for cull cattle from state to state and even within a state, it can be concluded that national prices for cull cows were more than favorable in 2024. The national weighted average price for lean (85%) cull cows in 2024 was $122.51 per cwt., a 32% increase from 2023 and a 92% increase from the 2018-2022 historical average.

Liquidation during the last couple of years has diminished the supply of beef cows available for slaughter. Demand for ground beef products has remained fairly steady, supporting high prices for lean trimmings and cull cows. Total beef cow slaughter has declined by 18% as of the latest Livestock Slaughter Report, but we are still culling about 10% of our beef cows, meaning we haven’t really stabilized, much less started rebuilding.

However, despite having fewer cull cows, heavier carcass weights of fed cattle and more heifers entering feedlots than being retained helped to offset the overall decline in cattle slaughter. As of October, almost 40% of cattle on feed are heifers. In 2024, steer and heifer carcasses reached average dressed weights of 929 lb. and 846 lb., respectively, with peaks of 960 lb. and 869 lb. As a result of heifer slaughter numbers and increased carcass weights, data indicates beef production for 2024 has only declined by about 0.6% compared to the expected decline of about 4% at the beginning of 2024.

2024 will most certainly be a year to remember for the beef cattle industry. But it might also be safe to say 2025 could be just as “exciting” with the likely continuation of high or higher prices and preparing to answer the question of when we will be able to start rebuilding and expanding.

Editor’s note: Hannah Baker is state specialized extension agent in beef and forage economics at the University of Florida’s Range Cattle Research and Education Center. This article is reprinted with permission from the Livestock Marketing Information Center website, www.lmic.info.

Angus Beef Bulletin EXTRA, Vol. 17, No. 1-A