U.S. beef exports in 2024 were expected to decline, but ended up stronger than earlier expected. An expected decline in beef production coupled with record-high cattle and beef prices and a strong U.S. dollar were potential headwinds.

In January 2024, USDA projected 2024 beef exports to be 2.8 billion pounds (lb.), and beef production to be 26.2 billion lb. (www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde), but both 2024 beef exports at 3 billion lb. and production at 27 billion lb. ended 2024 at very close to 2023 levels.

The increase in beef exports over expectations was due to higher-than-expected beef production, and continued strong export demand even though record-high cattle and beef prices occurred.

In spite of the beef cow herd declining in 2019 through 2024, 2024 beef production was the same as 2023 due to an increase in fed steer and heifer carcass weights, more heifers on feed due to U.S. drought conditions in major cow-calf regions, and the use of beef genetics in the dairy sector.

Carcass weights averaged 20-25 lb. heavier than the year before, which was the equivalent of slaughtering a million more fed cattle. That offset the 716,300-head decline in U.S. beef cow numbers that occurred in 2023, which will be an important factor to consider when cyclical beef cow herd expansion occurs.

Feedlots kept cattle on feed longer due to the record-high prices for the fewer available replacement feeder cattle and lower feed costs. 

Beef packers encouraged higher weights to help bolster lower beef production levels, because strong beef demand resulted in near record-high choice beef cut-out values well above $300 per hundredweight (cwt.).

Fed-cattle prices also exceeded expectations. USDA’s January 2024 forecast for 2024 annual fed cattle prices was a record $178.25 per cwt., up from $175.54 in 2023. Fed-cattle prices in 2024 exceeded the expectations at a record high $187 per cwt., buoyed by strong domestic and export demand for beef.

Even though 2024 beef export volume was similar to 2023, higher prices caused the 2024 value of exports to exceed 2023 by 6% according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (www.usmef.org).

The USDA Economic Research Service publishes monthly and annual U.S. livestock and meat trade data by country. That report with historic data back to 1989 is available at: www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/livestock-and-meat-international-trade-data.

Historically, the top U.S. beef export markets were Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Canada. In 2021 China quickly emerged as the third best market after the U.S.-China Phase One trade agreement became effective in March 2020. Exports to South Korea have been steadily increasing, which allowed it to challenge Japan for the top spot.

Even though 2023 and 2024 beef exports were off the record high, they were still tied for the third highest ever, only behind 2021 and 2022.

USDA’s January 2025 forecast is for beef exports to decline to 2.6 billion lb. in 2025 compared to 3 billion the last two years, due to 2025 beef production decreasing to 25.8 billion lb. from 27 billion. But history has shown the U.S. beef industry is very resilient and adaptive at producing more beef than expected, remembering just back to last year.

USDA is projecting annual 2025 fed-cattle prices to continue increasing cyclically to another record high of $195.50 per cwt., which also would be a headwind for beef exports.

It will also be important to watch if potential trade issues occur, because China, Mexico and Canada are the third, fourth and fifth top customers for U.S. beef. 

The U.S. is the leading exporter of high-quality beef in the world, because it is the largest producer of beef and has the reputation of providing the safest, most dependable beef products.

Maintaining a strong export market in spite of headwinds is important. The U.S. Meat Export Federation estimates beef exports contributed $412 per head to fed cattle sold in 2024 and nearly 14% of beef production.