Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer, expects cyclical upswing in prices to persist as the current cycle continues to be slower to the rebuild phase. Tight supplies and record demand support prices, but he noted the key is to avoid setting prices too high when compared to more affordable proteins.

“Most of us that have been in this industry over the course of the last 40 years … we have not really experienced demand and the strength that we found in 2024 at the retail level. That sort of demand flowed through the entire marketplace in terms of what we’ve seen in terms of prices, which were obviously record high and that continued here into the early part of 2025,” Murphy said Feb. 6, during the CattleFax Outlook Seminar, hosted as part of CattleCon 2025 in San Antonio, Texas.

He forecast the average 2025 fed-steer price at $198 per hundredweight (cwt.), up $12 per cwt. from 2024. All cattle classes are expected to trade higher, and prices are expected to continue to trend upward. The 800-lb. steer price is expected to average $270 per cwt., and the 550-lb. steer price is expected to average $340 per cwt. Utility cows are expected to average $140 per cwt., with bred cows at an average of $3,200 per cwt.

Looking at percent changes in the fed-cattle market, Murphy noted the industry must be prepared for volatility and potential risks. 

“[The percent range is] still not the biggest on record yet. It feels like it’s been a huge range. That’s just the volatility that we have to understand that’s in our marketplace,” Murphy said. “It’s been there forever, but boy, there’s way more dollars per head today involved than there would’ve been 25 years ago.”

This year’s USDA all-fresh retail beef prices are expected to average $8.25 per lb.

“As long as we can maintain those retail dollars or retail price, we’re going to have a very stable calf market,” he said. “…demand’s the driver, as demand sustains these types of values.”